Ukraine et Union européenne : le rapprochement

La perception de L’Ukraine par les Européens évolue de plus en plus
rapidement, comme le montre la démarche des députés européens
appelant les dirigeants de l’Union à ouvrir la porte une éventuelle
adhésion de Kiev. Tel est le constat dressé
par Ivan Lozowy dans Transitions
Online.

It may have taken a peaceful revolution to make it happen, but
Ukraine has burst onto Europe’s – and the world’s – radar
screen. 

After seeing up to a million Ukrainians demonstrating for
several months for free and fair elections and a pro-Western
candidate, the European Parliament responded to Viktor Yushchenko’s
victory by voting overwhelmingly on 13 January to offer Ukraine “a
clear European perspective” in anticipation of the “possibility
that Ukraine enters the EU.” 

The vote received a great deal of attention in Ukraine’s media,
which had for many years been starved of good news from Brussels.
Ukraine’s chances of gaining EU membership had once, famously, been
said to be as good as New Zealand’s by a former European Commission
president, Romano Prodi. But the talk in Brussels about Ukraine has
changed dramatically since the revolution and Yushchenko’s victory
on 26 December. At a stroke, Ukraine has moved out of a nebulous
zone where EU accession was remote and almost out of sight, to a
position where discussions about EU accession has an immediacy that
is measured in years. 

However, the EU’s executive arm, the European Commission,
quickly threw cold water on the MEPs’ enthusiasm by stating that
accession is a difficult and lengthy process and that the only plan
currently on the agenda is not a Membership Action Plan – a
precursor to an accession treaty – but a “European Neighborhood
Action Plan.” That merely foresees increased cooperation between
the EU and Ukraine on a wide range of issues and that Ukraine would
bring its laws more closely into line with EU legislation. Still,
according to the Brussels weekly European Voice, the European
Commission is poised to declare Ukraine a “functioning market
economy,” a decision that may be timed to coincide with a visit to
Brussels by Yushchenko himself planned for 21 February. 

The Commission’s hesitation is understandable. Just harmonizing
Ukraine’s laws with EU legislation and the acquis communautaire,
the EU’s administrative and judicial decisions, would require
amending tens of thousands of pages of legislation. That was also
the case with the EU’s youngest members, from Central Europe and
the Baltics, but the difficulties of adopting the new laws in
practice and not just in words would be likely to be significantly
greater in the EU’s first large expansion into the former Soviet
Union. 

Moreover, expansion to Russia’s largest and traditionally most
important western neighbor would require delicate
diplomacy. 

More pertinently in the immediate term, Ukraine has not formally
applied for EU membership, though it is not expected to be long in
coming under a Yushchenko presidency. For such an application to be
considered seriously, two things must happen: Yushchenko must
actually become Ukraine’s president and his government must
implement reforms that will convincingly demonstrate to Brussels
that Ukraine is moving away from a “Wild West” economy and
society. 

A stalled inauguration 

Yushchenko’s inauguration is only a matter of time – but it is
taking a relatively long time. In normal circumstances, Yushchenko
could theoretically have been inaugurated at any point since 10
January, when Ukraine’s Central Election Commission announced the
final results of the third-round vote held on 26 December, which
gave Yushchenko a lead of two and a quarter million votes. Once
those results are officially published by parliament or the
government, Yushchenko’s inauguration could follow within 30 days.
However, those results have not appeared in parliament’s or the
government’s official papers yet. 

The reason is that on 11 January, the Supreme Court ordered
publication to be halted until after it hears an appeal against the
results by Yushchenko’s principal opponent, Viktor Yanukovych.
Yanukovych’s representative in the CEC, Nestor Shufrych, and his
campaign manager Taras Chornovil submitted their complaint on 14
January, presenting 621 volumes of alleged evidence of election
violations during the election campaign and on election day. The
Supreme Court is due to starting hearing Yanukovych’s request for a
re-run of the third round on 17 January. 

It is unclear quite what the Court will review, as it has
removed several of the complaint’s allegations from the ambit of
its review. The Supreme Court had already dismissed four complaints
previously submitted by Yanukovych. In any event, given the large
margin of Yushchenko’s victory, it would be highly unlikely that
the Supreme Court would invalidate the 26 December vote. 

Still, the hearing will have to run its course. Since the
Supreme Court must reach a decision within five days of receiving
the complaint, it will have to decide by 19 January. If publication
of the results were to follow on 20 or 21 January, the earliest
date for the inauguration would be 22 January – which is
coincidentally the date when, in 1918, Ukraine declared
independence, almost a year after the collapse of the Russian
empire. 

To read the full text of the article, visit the Transitions Online website.