Repenser Chypre

Les chances de résoudre la dispute chypriote ont augmenté dernièrement, a écrit Hugh Pope, directeur de projet auprès de l’International Crisis Group (ICG), dans le numéro d’automne de Private View. 

« Time, prosperity, international experience and EU membership » have changed the Greek Cypriots a great deal, Pope claims.

Full EU membership has « done much to alleviate Greek Cypriots’ sense of insecurity, » the author says, adding that they have « scaled back arms purchases and training exercises ». 

Moreover, Pope says that three quarters of Greek Cypriots have « backed the pro-solution approach » to the country’s divisive problems proposed by Dimitris Christofias, president of Cyprus. 

This progress provides a « chance for Turkey to achieve a Cypriot settlement » by 2009, Pope believes. On top of this, the author says that resolving the Cyprus dispute would « set Turkey’s EU convergence process back on track, outflanking Turkey-sceptic leaders » such as French President Nicholas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. 

However, now the Greek Cypriots are full members of the EU, Pope stresses that the « stakes and risks are higher ». « Failure could lead to new insecurity and even military tensions between Cyprus and Turkey, » he claims. 

The biggest obstacle of all to a Cyprus solution is inertia, says Pope. He is worried that the « EU has not yet woken up to the opportunity and risks it faces in Cyprus ». 

Pope believes more should be done to make the case for a « post-settlement Cyprus ». Not only would a solution to the Cyprus dispute allow the island’s flagging tourism to benefit from an influx of Turkish tourists, but « Cyprus could become a genuine financial and service hub in the east Mediterranean […] and Turkish companies would find a rich new market, » claims the author. 

Pope states that with its « low taxes, strategic position and relatively efficient government, Cyprus would become a confident, cosmopolitan society and booming beacon of prosperity in the eastern Mediterranean [which] would be good for all Cypriots, and for Turkey too ».