Référendum constitutionnel en France : dernières analyses

A quelques jours du référendum français, cette note de Morgan Larhant pour l’EPIN  analyse les positions des deux camps en présence et cherche à replacer le débat dans son contexte en proposant quelques facteurs d’explication des grandes tendances observées durant la campagne.  

Following the opinion of the vast majority of parties, President Chirac announced on July 14th 2004 the organisation of a referendum on the European constitution. On this occasion he declared that no political leader could seriously oppose this text. Despite this judgement, and very often because of it, the opposition to the constitutional Treaty has grown in the last semester to reach a peak on December 1st 2004, the date of the PS’s internal referendum. 

Almost all the parties supported the choice to submit the European constitution to a referendum. This relative consensus was even strengthened in May 2004 when Tony Blair decided to organise a referendum in the UK. As a result, the decision of J. Chirac was expected. When it occurred in July 2004, it paved the way for the intervention of both institutional and individual actors.

Three institutional actors have had, or will have, an influence on the debate: 

• the constitutional court, 
• the Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA)
• the parliament (Assemblée nationale and Sénat).

All actors outside of the Government structure fall into the second category: individual actors. Consequently, it encompasses the parties, the trade unions and civil society. The Media are not mentioned since the leading dailies (Libération, Le Monde, Le Figaro) have not clearly taken sides on the subject. However, they generally give the impression that they are supporting the constitution.

To read the EPIN paper in full, please click here.