Quelles perspectives pour le traité constitutionnel ? Suivi des débats sur la ratification

Parmi les principales conclusions de cette note de l’EPIN, ce
pronostic : 22 des 25 Etats membres de
l’Union ratifieront la Constitution européenne. Les
auteurs de la note jugent la ratification « incertaine » en
République tchèque et « improbable » au Royaume-Uni.

Executive Summary (taken directly from the
paper)

Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European
elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to
use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification
process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the
findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a
survey conducted among national experts associated with the
European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are
inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report
draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented
by additional sources of information on the remaining countries
where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings
wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting
developments and differences in the respective member states. The
added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope
and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of
each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are
envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor
project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing
situation. 

The main findings of this report are: 

• At the present time, it looks likely that the
  Constitution will be ratified in 22 of the 25
  member states, with only the Czech Republic and Poland
  rated as ‘unsure’ and the United Kingdom as ‘rather unlikely’. All
  countries applying the parliamentary procedure only are rated
  ‘highly likely’ to ratify. In the Czech Republic and Poland, the
  referenda will actually make ratification more likely, because the
  qualified majorities needed in parliament would be difficult to
  obtain. 
• Concerning political parties, there exists a broad
  political mainstream in favour of the
  Constitution in almost all member states.
  However, there are rather clear divisions at the centre of the
  political spectrum in the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic,
  Poland and Malta. Even in France, the positions of the mainstream
  political parties are not as clear cut as observers usually
  assume. 
• Procedures, timetables and political
  conditions for parliamentary ratification and
  referenda vary widely among the member
  states, making a ‘European’ debate difficult and giving little
  incentive for an exchange of views across national borders.
  Consequently, at this point in time, the focus of the
  debates is (still) predominantly national in all member
  states. 
• The key players in the debate are set to be
  national politicians. This holds out the promise of lively
  national debates on a European issue in particular in those
  countries where referenda will be held. Yet it also carries the
  risk that debates may be ‘hijacked’ by national actors pursuing a
  domestic agenda. European actors and transnational involvement of
  key players are still largely absent from the debates. 
• There seems to be a certain set of core issues
  that is recurring throughout the ratification debate in
  most of the member states. Nevertheless, these issues are looked at
  through national lenses and there appears to be limited scope for
  transnational influences. 
• Moreover, it is often the issues directly related to the
  Treaty, which are more technical in nature and thus inherently less
  interesting for the general public, that are used by
  proponents in their attempt to generate support for
  ratification, whereas political issues tend to be brought up more
  frequently in arguments put forth by opponents to the
  Treaty. 
• Two issues are overwhelmingly used as an argument in favour of
  ratification of the Treaty: the provisions on CFSP and the enhanced
  role of the EU on the global stage that is perceived to derive from
  them. This seems to confirm that citizens want the EU to become
  more active in the field of Common Foreign and Security Policy.
  Indeed, the creation of the post of EU Foreign Minister is also
  expected to be used largely as a pro-ratification
  factor. 

Click here  to access the EPIN Working Paper written
by Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti and Justus
Schönlau.