Nouvelle politique turque pour le Caucase

Le processus de normalisation des relations Turquie-Arménie est l’élément le plus important de la nouvelle politique turque envers le Caucase, a écrit ce mois-ci Maciej Falkowski, un chercheur du centre pour les études de l’est basé à Varsovie.

« However, [this] process of normalisation […] has met with a number of serious impediments, which mean that it could be blocked at any moment, » Falkowski says, recalling that the process has aroused controversies in both Armenia and Turkey.

« Most political forces in Armenia have raised serious objections to a rapprochement with Turkey, » he explains, while « nationalist circles in Turkey do not want reconciliation with Armenia either ».

Moreover, Azerbaijan has vehemently protested against the possible opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, insisting that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh must be resolved first.

Armenia has controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies wholly within Azerbaijan, since a war was fought over the landlocked region between 1988 and 1994, leaving at least 6,000 dead. A ceasefire brokered by Russia has held since 1994.

According to Falkowski, « as yet, little seems to indicate any likelihood of a breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict ».

Moreover, « Turkish-Armenian relations can only be normalised if Moscow takes at least a neutral stance, » the researcher adds. But « the previous Russian policy, and the signs received from Russia so far, seem to prove that Moscow is rather reluctant to accept the normalisation process, » he writes.

Indeed, « Moscow, which still believes that Caucasus lies within its own zone of influence, will in principle object to any increase in other countries’ presence in this region, » he concludes.