Les progrès irréguliers de la Croatie sur la voie de l'adhésion à l'UE

La décision prise par l’UE de repousser la date d’ouverture des négociations d’adhésion avec la Croatie ne doit pas être interprétée comme une remise en cause radicale des espoirs européens de Zagreb. Pourtant, et malgré le fait que la Croatie affiche de meilleurs résultats économiques que la Bulgarie et la Roumanie, cet épisode pourrait encore éloigner dans le temps la date prévue pour l’entrée du pays dans l’UE, aujourd’hui programmée pour 2009, écrit l’équipe de Deutsche Bank Research dans son EU Monitor.

Over the last twelve months, important decisions have been taken for Croatia’s future. This was an emotional rollercoaster ride for the country’s population. Initially, Croatia’s nomination in June 2004 as an official candidate for EU accession and the EU’s – conditional – decision to begin accession negotiations on March 17, 2005 triggered feelings of joy and satisfaction. The stability and association agreement between the EU and Croatia took effect on February 1, 2005. 

War criminals tribunal a stumbling block 

Very recently, on March 16, the euphoria felt in Croatia fizzled out. On the basis of a new report, in which the chief prosecutor at the UN International Criminal Tribunal for Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) accused Croatia of failing to cooperate with the prosecution, the EU decided to postpone the start of accession negotiations indefinitely. However, the European Union has also made it quite clear that the door to Europe remains open for Croatia. Accordingly, negotiations will begin immediately after the ICTY has confirmed full cooperation on the part of the government in Zagreb. 

The EU’s strict stance has met with irritation and criticism not only in Croatia but also among its Member States. In fact, this is the first time that a decision on accession negotiations with a candidate country has been made not by the EU itself but de facto by an external body. As a result of the growing tensions between Croatia and the ICTY and the EU over the past months, support for EU membership among the Croatian population has fallen substantially since the start of 2005 – to less than 50%. 

The country’s relationship with the EU will probably be characterised for some time by anger and disappointment. Sooner or later, though, the majority of Croatians will likely realise that in the long run EU membership offers considerable advantages, while in an alternative scenario as a political outsider in Europe it would be sure to lose out. We therefore continue to expect Croatia to join the EU over the medium term. We think the country will be ready for admission in 2009 at the very earliest; the postponement of accession negotiations, however, has made a later accession date increasingly likely. 

To read the analysis in full, visit the Deutsche Bank Research website.