La Pologne en pole position ?

Devant l’échec de la ratification de la Constitution en France et aux Pays-Bas, les autorités polonaises éprouvent un mélange de déception et de satisfaction – sentiments auxquels s’ajoute une ferme résolution à maintenir le référendum prévu dans le pays, écrit Wojciech Kosc dans Transitions Online.

Britain may reportedly be on the verge of abandoning the notion of a referendum on the European Constitution after “No” votes in France and the Netherlands, but, for now at least, there appears little chance of the Polish government following suit. 

Indeed, it seems that, for Prime Minister Marek Belka, France’s rejection of the European Constitution gives Poland even more reason to adopt the constitution. “We should go forward to show our determination and that we are Europeans,” Belka said. “It is also a chance for us to strengthen our position in the EU.”

Marek Borowski, leader of a young left-wing party, the Polish Social Democrats, believes it could do more than strengthen Poland: A Polish Yes could result in a longed-for reversal in the roles that Poland and France have played in Europe. “This is a great opportunity for Poland,” Borowski said on 29 May. “It’s always been France that decided about the integration. Now we can say how we understand it.”

The government duly announced on 6 June that a referendum will be held on 9 October, the same day as the first round of presidential elections.

Ordinary Poles seem to agree that the country should press ahead with a referendum. An opinion poll conducted by OBOP in the days after the French and Dutch voted indicated that 59 percent of Poles want a referendum – and that more than 50 percent of them (58 percent) would turn up and thereby ensure the result would be valid. A quarter (26 percent) opposed a referendum, which had originally been penciled in for the fall.

But Poles may not necessarily “understand” the constitution as Borowski understands it. According to the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS), 56 percent support the vote, close enough to raise doubts that the subsidence in support in France could be repeated in Poland. However, opponents of the constitutional treaty number just 15 percent, exactly the same percentage as opposed EU membership this April.

The government’s desire has a domestic political edge. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) led Poland into the EU one year ago, and it now wants to complete another important chapter of the integration, in the hope that this could lift its political fortunes. But the chances of a “yes” in any referendum may be damaged by the left’s deep unpopularity. Nor may the proximity of the referendum – in the autumn – help its case, since parliamentary elections are due in September. 

The Yes camp will not be helped either by a new unity among the right wing.

“The question [of the Constitution] seems closed since it was rejected by a country as important as France,” Kazimierz Ujazdowski of the right-wing Law and Justice opposition party told the daily Gazeta Wyborcza on 29 May. “A referendum in Poland is now pointless. By the time it happens, the EU countries will have started working again on the treaty, and it is the new Polish parliament and the new government that should take a stance on it,” Ujadowski continued.

Law and Justice looks almost certain to co-rule Poland after the parliamentary elections.

The Law and Justice party’s most probable coalition partner, the centrist Civic Platform, so far seen as clearly pro-integration, is also advocating the cancellation of the Polish referendum. “I appeal to Polish politicians, especially the Polish left: Stop confusing the people,” said the Platform’s leader, Donald Tusk, said on 4 June. “It is not worth deceiving Poles [that] the referendum will bring positive results for our country,” argues Tusk, who plans to stand for the presidency in October. “The treaty is no longer – and it’s not Poland’s fault, but France’s and the Netherlands’.” 

Poland’s future EU course

What direction a hybrid right-wing government would take is not clear. The current left-wing government backs deeper integration, including a common foreign policy and the rapid adoption of the euro, while also offering a warm – though not quick – welcome to Ukraine and Turkey, as well as smaller states in the Balkans. 

It would also welcome the controversial services directive that would establish a free market of services in the EU – and would create an excellent opportunity for the eight post-communist member-states, where labor is cheap.

The right would certainly like to see West European companies move to Poland but has little interest in any swift integration. Law and Justice’s Ujazdowski argues that the constitution, which aims to change the architecture of the EU institutions to ease decision-making, “infringes the principles of solidarity and partnership in the EU.” The constitution’s rejection was therefore the “proper reaction,” he contends.

The Law and Justice Party wants the French “non” and the Dutch “nee” in order, in the words of Michal Kaminski, a member of the European Parliament, to force the European Union to “return to its roots: a Europe as a community of sovereign and independent countries that cooperate harmoniously.” 

That perception that Brussels creates policies over the heads of the people was one of the main reasons for the party’s opposition to the constitutional treaty. 

It also strongly opposes the lack of reference to Europe’s Christian tradition and to God in the treaty’s preamble and – like its potential partner in government, Civic Platform – believes that the constitutional treaty needs to be thoroughly revised, since in it current shape it does not guarantee Poland the number of votes they believe it warrants.

Another Polish MEP, Civic Platform’s Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, said his party wants “an EU with an undiminished position for Poland, with undiminished political and economic solidarity, and an EU open to the East.”

To read the article in full, visit the Transitions Online website.