L’UE et la guerre entre la Russie et la Géorgie

La nouvelle volonté de la Russie d’agir en vue d’étendre ses frontières, le non-respect du droit international et le « grand jeu énergétique » sont les principales questions géopolitiques soulevées par la « manifestation d’une offensive russe tous azimuts » lors de la guerre avec la Géorgie en août dernier. C’est ce qu’affirment Jean-Dominique Guliani et Michel Foucher de la Fondation Robert Schuman.

The authors are keen to stress that this conflict « directly involves » Europe as the unstable climate puts its « vital interests in balance ». With Russia monitoring the Georgian region, the September paper urges the EU « to make contact again with Iran » to provide an alternative to Russia, as Iran is « the only supplier able to make Nabucco profitable ». The paper calls on the EU to refrain from « talking of its fears about energy supplies » because it diverts attention away from the interdependence of Russia and the bloc and EU-Russian « common interests ». 

Moscow’s acknowledgement of South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s independence has given it « total control of key routes » including the Black Sea’s eastern coastline, states the paper. What Russia intends to do next regarding the Black Sea and Ukraine remains to be seen, but both feature « top of the list » for future action, say the authors. 

Georgia’s decision to use force triggered the conflict, and brings into question the viability of the EU offering it membership, argues the paper. Resorting to force contradicts the EU’s values, recall the authors. They argue that « precipitating membership », be it Georgia or Ukraine, would « simply draw the EU into one camp or another, » claiming that « one does not just join to protect oneself from an enemy or to belong to one camp opposed to another ». 

Those in favour of enlargement are unaware of its implications, the authors claim, posing the question: « Who in the European Union would be ready and who might reasonably commit to military action in Central Asia, the Caucasus or on the borders of Russia? » 

The paper argues that the EU « clearly needs to point out the rules of international law to Russia » and increase its presence in the immediate neighbourhood. It says the bloc should provide assistance in regions « where ‘frozen conflicts’ or potential battles might develop and degenerate after Georgia ». 

The authors conclude by recommending that the EU should first protect its own interests and then stabilise its borders before finally promoting « the prosperity of the continent ». « As long as the six-point agreement is not totally respected […] Europe should freeze all ongoing cooperation discusssions » with Russia, they add.