L'inflation devrait être plus faible en 2004 qu'en 2005
En 2004, le taux d'inflation moyen en Europe centrale et orientale a connu une forte hausse pour se situer aux alentours de 5%, après avoir atteint un plus bas historique en 2003 (3,4%). Trois questions viennent dès lors à l'esprit : l'entrée dans l'UE a-t-elle joué sur la hausse des prix ? Quels sont les biens et services les plus affectés par cette hausse ? Quelles sont les perspectives pour 2005 ? Les réponses se trouvent dans ce numéro de la Revue Elargissement de MINEFI-DREE.
En 2004, le taux d’inflation moyen en Europe centrale et
orientale a connu une forte hausse pour se situer aux
alentours de 5%, après avoir atteint un plus bas
historique en 2003 (3,4%). Trois questions viennent dès lors à
l’esprit : l’entrée dans l’UE a-t-elle joué sur la
hausse des prix ? Quels sont les biens et services les plus
affectés par cette hausse ? Quelles sont les perspectives pour
2005 ? Les réponses se trouvent dans ce numéro de la Revue
Elargissement de MINEFI-DREE.
For the new member states, EU accession has brought with
it:
- a rise in some tax rates (and/or a widening of their assessment
base), in particular excise duties on petrol, tobacco and alcohol
(Czech Republic, Slovakia) and VAT (Hungary, Czech Republic,
Latvia, Slovakia, Poland). In the Czech Republic, changes in
indirect taxation, as a result of accession, would account for 50%
of the acceleration in inflation. - the removal of the last tariff barriers for agricultural
products, which has stimulated not only trade but also price
convergence with the former EU15 countries. In addition,
administered prices like those of electricity and gas also
underwent steep rises, in Bulgaria and Slovakia for example.
Nevertheless, these rises are not directly related to EU accession,
but rather to the regular convergence of prices towards more
“economic realism”. - In the 12 Central and Eastern European countries, on average,
the largest contribution to the acceleration in the price growth
rate was made by agricultural and food products: these account for
more than 60% of the variation in inflation between November 2004
and November 2003. Next come the transport and housing sectors,
with contributions to the total rise of 12% and 10% respectively.
The price rise accelerated for all the services, except health
(+3.6% y/y in November 2004 against +5.7% y/y a year earlier).
Among the various services, acceleration was strongest in
“communications” (2.5% against +1.2% respectively), followed by
“leisure and culture” (+2.8% against +1.9%). Conversely, the rise
in the prices of textiles, clothing and furniture (including
household appliances) continued to decrease throughout 2004, as
these goods are subject to international competition *. - For 2005, most of the economic institutions expect the
inflation growth rate in the region to slow down. In parallel, the
inflation objectives of the central banks are also directed
downwards. - This consensus is based on at least four elements of analysis.
Firstly, the tax measures which accompanied the accession have, by
definition, only temporary effects. Secondly, the growth in
domestic demand should not accelerate: wages should increase
moderately (except in Romania, and possibly also in Bulgaria) and
the New Member States should reduce their budget deficits, as they
undertook to do in their “convergence programmes”. Thirdly, demand
from abroad is expected to stagnate or even fall slightly (see
Dossier 50 Economic forecasts 2005). Lastly, the Central Banks
should remain vigilant with regard to price trends and their
monetary policies should be somewhat restrictive. - Nevertheless, one should bear in mind that, firstly, major
price differentials remain between the NMS and the countries of the
former EU15, in the service sector as well as for certain consumer
goods (cars, agricultural and food products in particular). For
them, the convergence process will continue. Secondly, producer
prices did not weaken during the final months of the year 2004 and
the price levels of raw materials, which could remain high this
year, should maintain an upward pressure.
* In each country, dynamic changes can be observed in one
sector or another. Thus, the price of communications accelerated
strongly in the Czech Republic (-2.5% y/y in November 2003 against
+10% in November 2004) and in Malta (0% against +8%). In Hungary
housing and related costs rose from a growth rate of +8% in January
2004 to +13% at the end of the year and from +5% to +8% in Latvia.
Inflation in transport, the general trend being due to the oil
price increases, obviously accelerated from April onwards in Poland
(+3% against +7.5% in November) and in Latvia, because of the
convergence in motor vehicle prices brought about by manufacturers
in Hungary and Slovenia.
By Yann LEPAPE
