Analyse : Que se passe-t-il si le cycle de Doha s'éteint?

Le président de la banque de développement africaine, Donald Kaberuka, évoque le coût potentiel d’un échec du cycle de Doha pour l’Afrique dans un article du magazine Europe’s World.

Kaberuka begins by asserting that, since World War II, a direct link has been evident between liberal trading regimes and strong economic growth. However, African countries have largely been excluded from this phenomenon, seeing instead their share of world trade falling from around 5% in the 1980s to just under 2% today.

The Doha Round aimed to reverse this trend by mainstreaming development into trade negotiations as well as front-loading the concerns of developing countries. These consisted chiefly of market-access issues in agriculture and special and differential treatment (SDT), including technical assistance and trade-capacity building.

The author states that a successful trade round could contribute some $350 billion to developing countries’ economies by 2015, adding that, if all global trade barriers were eliminated, around 500 million people could be lifted out of poverty by 2020. On the other hand, he emphasises that, in the event of a failed round, the likely increase in bilateral trade deals would on the whole be detrimental to smaller and poorer countries which would find themselves forced to make many more concessions under a regime of bilateralism than they would under the WTO’s multilateralism.

The article concludes by calling for a “renewed and re-invigorated commitment” in order to achieve a successful outcome to Doha. Whereas aid and debt relief can provide a “temporary palliative”, the author believes it is trade and investment that can do most to end global poverty.